Fuel Sh*ck Ahead? Fresh Petrol Price Hike Looms Over Middle East Tensions

Nigerians may soon pay up to ₦1,000 per litre for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) following a fresh increase in the gantry price of petrol by the Dangote Refinery. The new rates are expected to take effect between Tuesday and Wednesday, March 3 and 4, 2026.

Petroleum marketers and retailers say the adjustment will likely trigger a nationwide rise in pump prices.

The refinery reportedly raised its gantry price to ₦874 per litre on Monday — an increase of at least ₦75 — amid surging global crude oil prices driven by the escalating Iran–United States–Israel conflict.

Renewed hostilities in the Middle East have unsettled the global energy market. The crisis intensified after Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were reportedly killed in a strike on Friday night. Iran subsequently launched retaliatory attacks on US allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia.

Oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar were reportedly targeted on Monday, leading to a suspension of shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit corridor. Saudi Arabia’s major refinery in Ras Tanura, operated by Saudi Aramco, was said to have been struck by an Iranian drone, resulting in a shutdown.

In Qatar, an attack on QatarEnergy reportedly disrupted liquefied natural gas production, heightening concerns about global supply shortages.

As of Monday, Brent crude traded at $78.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood at $71.84 per barrel. Investment bank Goldman Sachs warned that prolonged instability in the Middle East could push LNG prices in Europe and Asia to as high as $25 per million British thermal units.

Retail petrol prices ranged between ₦870 and ₦899 per litre on Monday night. However, a manager at a Dangote-affiliated MRS filling station in Abuja confirmed that a revised retail price would take effect from Tuesday.

The spokesperson for the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, said the Middle East conflict would inevitably impact domestic fuel prices.

“There will be fluctuations and increases due to the Iran–US–Israel crisis. Although we have moved beyond scarcity concerns, rising crude prices globally have prompted Dangote to adjust its rates. The final pump price will depend on logistics and transportation costs and could range between ₦980 and ₦1,000,” he said.

Ukadike, however, urged Nigerians to avoid panic buying, expressing confidence that supply would remain steady as the Federal Government continues to provide crude oil to the refinery in naira. He noted that disruptions in crude shipments, particularly in the Gulf region, could further strain global supply chains.

Meanwhile, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, attributed the looming price hike to rising global crude prices fueled by the conflict.

“With hostilities escalating in the Middle East and Iran being a major crude supplier, any disruption will naturally affect global prices. It is therefore not surprising that local refineries would respond by adjusting prices upward,” he stated.

Industry stakeholders maintain that while an immediate fuel shortage is unlikely, continued volatility in the global oil market could keep pump prices under sustained pressure in the days ahead.