What A Trump Re-election Could Mean For U.S.-Africa Relations

What A Trump Re-election Could Mean For U.S.-Africa RelationsDuring his first term as U.S. president, Donald Trump made headlines for his controversial remarks about African nations, but since his re-election, many African leaders have been quick to congratulate him, emphasizing the need for a relationship built on mutual respect and cooperation.

One notable figure, veteran Kenyan politician Raila Odinga, dismissed Trump’s infamous 2018 comment where he allegedly referred to African nations as “shithole countries.” Odinga told AFP, “That was then, this is now — a new Trump.”

However, questions persist about how Trump’s “America First” approach will affect Africa, particularly if Republicans maintain control of both the U.S. House and Senate.

Trade Relations at Stake

The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a cornerstone of U.S.-Africa trade since the Clinton administration, has provided duty-free access for a wide range of African exports, including textiles, agricultural products, and automobiles. South Africa, the largest non-oil AGOA exporter to the U.S., has benefitted significantly from the program. Yet, Trump has previously proposed broad tariffs on foreign imports, and with AGOA’s renewal approaching next year, its future remains uncertain.

Before the election, Ronak Gopaldas, an analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Africa, predicted that under a second Trump term, U.S. trade policy could be more insular and transactional. “Given Trump’s skepticism towards multilateral frameworks, the continuation of AGOA could be at risk,” he said.

While Trump’s administration did engage in trade deals with select African nations, his preference for bilateral over multilateral agreements raises concerns about the long-term future of such partnerships.

China and Africa: The Strategic Competition

Another looming issue is how Trump’s ongoing competition with China will impact Africa. As China has increased its presence across the continent through trade, infrastructure projects, and investments, Trump’s administration previously expressed frustration with China’s growing influence in Africa. It remains to be seen whether a re-elected Trump will take a more aggressive stance in countering China’s role or seek to engage more constructively with African nations in this geopolitical context.

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