APC Poised For Victory As Edo Enters Crucial Gubernatorial Polls

APC Poised For Victory As Edo Enters Crucial Gubernatorial Polls

Today, the political landscape of Edo State stands on the cusp of transformation as voters head to the polls to elect their next governor. Three major parties—the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Labour Party (LP)—are vying for the top seat at Dennis Osadebe Avenue.

Interestingly, the three leading candidates—Senator Monday Okpebholo of the APC, Asue Ighodalo of the PDP, and Olumide Akpata of the LP—are all newcomers to the governorship race. However, only one of them has direct electoral experience: Senator Monday Okpebholo, who not only has a track record of winning elections but is also currently serving as a senator. This distinction places the APC at a significant advantage.

The APC enters this contest with an impressive electoral legacy in Edo State, having secured victories across multiple election cycles, including the first tenure of the outgoing governor, Godwin Obaseki, who was initially elected under the APC banner. While Obaseki’s defection to the PDP before  might have complicated the political dynamics in the state, the PDP is now in disarray, largely due to the dissatisfaction with Obaseki’s administration. Meanwhile, the Labour Party, though boosted by Olumide Akpata’s candidacy, remains less entrenched statewide, lacking the grassroots networks necessary to win big.

A key factor that strengthens the APC’s hand in this election is the wave of defections from the PDP, which has significantly weakened the latter’s hold on the electorate. Many high-profile politicians in the state have switched allegiance to the APC, effectively consolidating the party’s dominance ahead of the polls.

This trend suggests that the PDP, once a formidable force, may struggle to compete, while the Labour Party, though gaining traction in pockets of Edo South, still lacks the statewide structure to mount a serious challenge.

Edo’s Three Senatorial Districts: The Battlegrounds

To truly appreciate the dynamics at play, it is important to assess the three senatorial districts—Edo South, Edo Central, and Edo North—and the strengths each party brings to the table.

1. Edo South: The Major Battleground

Edo South, the district with the largest voter base, is set to be the most fiercely contested battleground in the upcoming election. All three major candidates have strong ties to this region. Labour Party candidate Olumide Akpata, who hails from Edo South, enjoys his strongest support here. However, this does not guarantee an LP victory.

The APC, with its well-established network in Edo South, is far from being the underdog. Senator Monday Okpebholo’s appeal extends beyond his Edo Central base, and the APC’s organizational strength in Edo South allows them to present a formidable challenge to both the LP and PDP. The party’s deep connections with local power brokers, combined with the recent influx of defectors from the PDP, further enhance their chances.

2. Edo Central: APC’s Fortress

In Edo Central, the APC can confidently expect a decisive victory. This region, where Senator Monday Okpebholo hails from, is firmly under the control of the APC due to his genuine grassroots connections.

Okpebholo’s popularity in Edo Central is rooted in his long-standing work within the community, and this will undoubtedly translate into votes. Asue Ighodalo of the PDP, despite being from Edo Central, is seen by many locals as a political outsider, largely due to his elitist background and lack of strong grassroots presence.

His reliance on interpreters during his campaigns in the area further alienates him from voters, making it difficult for him to resonate with the electorate. Edo Central, therefore, is expected to overwhelmingly back Senator Okpebholo and the APC.

3. Edo North: A Solid APC Stronghold

Edo North has traditionally been an APC stronghold, and this election will be no different. The APC’s dominance here is rooted in the party’s past successes and the continued support of key political figures from the region.

While the other candidates will try to make inroads, the APC’s firm grip on Edo North remains unshaken. Senator Monday Okpebholo’s influence and the longstanding goodwill the APC enjoys in this region will ensure that Edo North delivers another solid victory for the party.

A Likely Path to APC Victory

The electoral map of Edo State suggests that the APC is well-positioned to secure at least 14 out of the 18 local government areas in the state. Edo Central will be delivered almost entirely to Senator Monday Okpebholo, while the APC will maintain its historical dominance in Edo North. In Edo South, the race will be closer due to Olumide Akpata’s presence, but the APC’s deep roots in the district and the ongoing defections from the PDP provide a clear path for the party to perform well even here.

The PDP’s chances are slim, as they continue to reel from the fallout of Governor Obaseki’s unpopular policies and the exodus of key party members. Asue Ighodalo’s campaign lacks the grassroots machinery necessary to compete with the APC in both Edo Central and North, and even in Edo South, his support base is weak compared to Akpata and Okpebholo.

Ultimately, this election is shaping up to be a referendum not only on the candidates but on the parties’ ability to connect with the people. The APC’s combination of a strong candidate, a proven electoral machine, and widespread defections from its rivals positions it as the front-runner. While the Labour Party will make inroads in Edo South, it is unlikely to pose a statewide challenge. The PDP, on the other hand, appears to be fighting a losing battle, with little to offer voters beyond the waning legacy of Governor Obaseki.

As Edo enters this crucial electoral battle, all signs point to a clear path for the APC and Senator Monday Okpebholo to emerge victorious. With at least 14 local governments expected to fall into their column, the APC is on the brink of reclaiming the seat of power in Edo State.

Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah is the Chairman and CEO of Bush Radio Academy.