Edo State Gubernatorial Race 2024: APC Leads, PDP Tries To Catch Up As  LP Surges(Strength And Weaknesses) 

Edo State Gubernatorial Race 2024: APC Leads, PDP Tries To Catch Up As  LP Surges(Strength And Weaknesses)....KINDLY READ THE FULL STORY HERE▶

By Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah

Back when I was young and actively participating in sports, particularly Table Tennis, if I won a game and my opponent started blaming themselves for the loss, my way of consoling them was to reassure them that I simply had more experience and skill, and it wasn’t really their fault – I would have won anyway, lol…CONTINUE READING.

Today, I will delve into an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the three prominent political parties in the state. These parties are poised to have a significant impact on the political landscape from now until September 21st. As I mentioned earlier, it’s essential to embrace the growing excitement, as the dynamics of this political race are likely to become even more captivating as time progresses.

The three key political parties in focus are the Labour Party, the Peoples Democratic Party, and the All Progressives Congress.

Labour Party:

This political party lacks a well-defined ideology in the state and appears to be seeking the mentorship of the influential figure, Peter Obi, who holds sway in Edo Politics. Their supporters are more akin to fans than committed members, and they primarily thrive in Edo South, particularly in urban areas like Egor, Ikpoba Okha, and Oredo.

They are primarily made up of the Obidient Movement, which has a strong feeling of solidarity and has a significant influence in the region.

Strengths:

Their primary advantage lies in their devoted and compliant base; when they rally behind a cause, they are willing to make significant efforts to see it through. Challenging them can be perilous, as they often act driven by emotions and spontaneous decisions.

Being a comparatively new party, they naturally bring forward fresh faces. The benefit of having newcomers is that they come with less political baggage, potentially increasing their appeal to the voters.

Weaknesses:

The Labour Party could potentially become a refuge for politicians who failed to secure the tickets of the APC or PDP but are determined to continue their electoral pursuits. The inclusion of these individuals, along with the existing crowded field of aspirants within the LP, has the potential to create disruptions.

The LP has a track record of inadequately managing their primary elections. Wealthy candidates and those driven by sentiment, who believe they can secure victory within the LP due to Peter Obi’s influence, might become excessively ego-driven and resistant to reconciliation after the primaries.

The youth contingent within the Obidient movement, which happens to be the main support base of the LP in Edo South, could exhibit unruly behavior that may turn people away from their candidate. These individuals campaign aggressively and with little tolerance; for instance, in areas where they are strong, they not only obstruct their opponents’ campaign efforts but also ridicule them online.

While they may wield great power within their own borders, they may encounter disdain in other regions of the state.

Peoples Democratic Party:

The PDP would typically be expected to be the dominant party, but recent electoral outcomes, particularly in the last general elections, indicate that they have significantly lost ground. With just one representative in the national assembly, it’s evident that they are currently struggling as a party.

Obaseki has emerged The Godfather , often regarded as the latest power player in the State. He has openly clashed with the Deputy Governor, blatantly undermining the office, all in an effort to prevent him from running for office.

Obaseki is imposing Asue Ighodalo of Sterling Bank as his choice and to that end all the old PDP people are leaving the party in droves, Sen Matthew Urhoghide , Mike Onolememen former minster of works, Gideon Ikhine and a host of others.

Presently, Obaseki holds the PDP apparatus under his influence, but he finds himself in a heated dispute with his deputy, Philip Shaibu. In practical terms, this situation implies that Obaseki wields control over a faction of the PDP.

When you take into account the fact that the Wike faction of the PDP, represented by Chief Dan Orbih, opposes Obaseki and is inclined to collaborate with the APC, much like they did in the previous general election, it becomes clear why the PDP is likely to secure a third-place position.

Furthermore, the residents of Edo State do not perceive anything remarkable in Obaseki’s leadership, which makes the idea of continuity less appealing to them.

They are concerned that if he imposes his successor, the new leader may adopt similar characteristics, such as excluding party members from governance and betraying those who assisted in his rise to power.

The All Progressives Congress (APC):

Before I delve deeper into the analysis of the APC, I want to make it clear to the TATAFO’S that I am not affiliated with the APC or any specific candidate. I am a news analyst and political commentator who maintains independence and objectivity. I encourage those who have preconceived notions to set them aside and approach this analysis with an open perspective.

The APC possesses the necessary elements to secure victory in the election, and these elements include both strengths and weaknesses.

At the helm of the ruling party, President Bola Tinubu’s leadership presents a solid asset for the party’s progress. Tinubu is a seasoned political figure, unlike Buhari, who is primarily known as a military general. While Buhari may not be as adept in political maneuvering, Tinubu’s political acumen offers a distinct advantage.

This realization alone boosts the confidence of APC members in the state’s party, making them feel like they’re already on their way to the Government house. This motivational energy will likely encourage them to work even harder for the party, surpassing their efforts in 2020, where there were instances of internal betrayals.

Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole’s factor:

The only way I can describe myself is to say God Bless Oshiomhole for playing the role of a father. Call me Oshiomhole’s boy if you must. However, the wise would recognise that Oshiomhole is now the only Edo leader who is universally recognised as a generally acknowledged leader, whether in the PDP, APC, or any other party in the state.

This is because most Edo residents genuinely perceive Oshiomhole as a champion of their interests. Even if he were to take on a “Godfather” role, it would likely be more warmly embraced than Obaseki’s similar role, as many believe Obaseki lacks political successors in his realm, whereas Adams has a long line of political descendants.

To draw a comparison, the role of Peter Obi in the LP is analogous to the influence Adams Oshiomhole wields within the state’s party. Oshiomhole is a notable figure in the run-up to the party primaries. My advice is to consider him a confidant, as he is a person of integrity and influence.

APC Weaknesses:

For reasons best known to the party, it appears that its numerous aspirants , who constitute a sizable section of the contestants, are envious of one another. Internal rivalry could hamper their combined efforts, same to way factions connected with Osinbajo and Rotimi Amaechi worked hard to denigrate Tinubu prior to the party primaries.

These attacks harmed Tinubu’s credibility after the primaries, which was utilized by rival political parties.

However, the APC has a good opportunity if they can efficiently manage their post-primaries phase.

The Political Advantage Favoring the APC:

I understand that some may not be pleased to hear this, but Edo North is firmly in favor of the candidate supported by Oshiomhole.

In Edo Central, it’s possible that candidates from all political parties will compete, leading to a division of votes among the three parties. If the APC selects a candidate from Edo South, it could capitalize on the majority support in Edo South, potentially splitting the votes with the LP, while PDP lags behind.

Regardless of the challenges ahead, just as Asiwaju Tinubu secured only 38% of the votes to become president, the APC is likely to secure victory. The same political forces that influenced the PDP, LP, and NNPP’s chances in the just concluded presidential election are anticipated to play out in the Edo polls.

Finally, this is not an EXPO; rather, it is a clear political vision in which everyone free of emotions can understand the calculations and permutations.

Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah serves as the Chairman and CEO of Bush Radio Academy.

Source: iReporteronline.