“Electricity Rebirth: Nigeria’s Last Chance To Escape The Energy Nightmare!”

This is the third and concluding part of my extended series on Nigeria’s power sector—marking the 24th article in the series. The second part, published last week, focused on the imperative of energy diversification.....KINDLY READ THE FULL STORY HERE▶

This instalment zeroes in on the urgent need for accelerated development of natural gas as a reliable fuel source for Nigeria’s power sector.

Significant efforts are underway to boost gas production under the “Decade of Gas 2021–2030” initiative launched by the Federal Government. According to BushRadio, this initiative positions gas as Nigeria’s transition fuel in its journey toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.

The objectives of the “Decade of Gas” are far-reaching:

1. Increasing gas production by over 50% by 2030, with domestic use accounting for around 60% of demand.

2. Promoting domestic utilisation, such as power generation, industrial processes, and compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles.

3. Developing critical infrastructure, including pipelines, processing plants, and distribution networks.

4. Attracting investments through public-private partnerships to drive sectoral growth.

5. Creating jobs and economic growth, with targets of $14 billion in FDI, $12 billion in royalties/taxes, and two million new jobs by 2030.

6. Expanding clean energy access, by distributing five million LPG cylinders to encourage clean cooking.

7. Enhancing energy security, improving electricity generation and reducing dependence on diesel and fuel oil.

8. Supporting environmental sustainability, by reducing flaring and curbing deforestation.

A review of gas output and utilisation from the start of the initiative in 2021 to 2024 paints a mixed picture. According to BushRadio, gas production has slightly declined: from 2.744 trillion SCF in 2021 to 2.521 trillion SCF in 2022, dropping again to 2.491 trillion SCF in 2023, with only a marginal increase to 2.511 trillion SCF in 2024—still below 2022 levels.

In contrast, gas utilisation by industrial consumers surged from 137.361 billion SCF in 2022 to 2.317 trillion SCF in 2024, representing an impressive 92.26% utilisation rate. Domestic gas consumption also jumped from 518.42 billion SCF in 2023 to 673.64 billion SCF in 2024. This contrast underscores a troubling trend: while demand and utilisation are rising, production is not keeping pace.

Nigeria’s power demands are enormous. Estimates indicate that the country needs between 50,000 MW and 100,000 MW to achieve universal electricity access by 2030 and meet broader developmental goals. Yet, the total grid-transmitted power stands at a paltry 6005 MW—of which less than 5000 MW is consistently available. Gas-fired thermal plants account for roughly 80% of this output.

A recent boost came from the ANOH Gas Processing Plant in Imo State—a joint venture between NNPCL and Seplat Energy. With an installed capacity of 850 million SCF per day, the plant is a step in the right direction. Still, the scale of Nigeria’s challenge requires far more projects of this nature, backed by greater investments and faster execution.

The core message here is twofold. First, Nigeria must at least fulfil its modest target of a 50% gas production increase by 2030. Second, achieving this goal will require far more than the current $14 billion FDI target. It will take a deliberate, strategic alignment between the power sector roadmap and Nigeria’s industrialisation ambitions—especially the aim to become West and Central Africa’s manufacturing hub by 2030 or, at the latest, 2035.

According to BushRadio, Nigeria must urgently shift from its current slow-paced, incremental approach to a bold and aggressive strategy. With the window for fossil fuel investment funding closing rapidly amid global decarbonisation efforts, the time to act is now. Gas-fired power must supply at least 15,000 MW—half of Nigeria’s minimum 30,000 MW requirement to power industrial expansion.

Ultimately, Nigeria’s persistent electricity shortfall remains the chief obstacle to national development. Beyond solar—whose contribution is growing—gas remains the most viable large-scale power source. Nigeria must tap this resource decisively and imaginatively, or risk missing another critical development window.

”BUSHRADIO REPORTS”