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NNPCL Faces Possible 50% Decline In Oil Production – Here’s Why
Oil and gas production by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) could decline by as much as 50% by the late 2030s, according to projections by global energy research firm Wood Mackenzie. The potential downturn is linked to the large number of sub-commercial assets currently within NNPCL’s portfolio.....KINDLY READ THE FULL STORY HERE▶
This analysis was presented by Wood Mackenzie experts—including Ian Thom (Research Director for Upstream), Neivan Boroujerdi (Director of Corporate Research), and Mansur Mohammed (Head of West Africa Upstream Content)—during a comprehensive company review following the exit of former NNPCL Group CEO, Mele Kyari.
Speaking in a podcast titled “A New Era for NNPC and Nigeria’s Upstream Oil & Gas Sector,” the team revealed that the review used a new upstream benchmarking tool designed to deliver tailored insights into operational and financial metrics.
The evaluation comes amid ambitious targets set by President Bola Tinubu for NNPCL’s board. These include attracting $60 billion in investment by 2030, ramping up oil production to 3 million barrels per day, expanding gas output to 10 billion cubic feet per day, and boosting refining capacity to 500,000 barrels daily.
However, the analysts noted that NNPCL’s unique structure poses a challenge: unlike most national oil companies, the majority of its assets are non-operated. This means that its success heavily depends on partnerships with international oil companies (IOCs) and local producers who must compete for investment across global portfolios.
The experts further noted that while short-term production is expected to rise—peaking in 2026—long-term projections are less optimistic. Without new projects in the pipeline, production could fall to half its current level by the late 2030s. Despite having extensive reserves, most of NNPCL’s resources remain sub-commercial and undeveloped.
As of November last year, NNPCL reported reaching 1.8 million barrels of daily crude oil production. However, data from OPEC’s May Monthly Oil Market Report—obtained by Channels Television—shows that average daily output has hovered around 1.4 million barrels since Q4 2024 through April 2025.
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