The APC-ADC Strategic Blunder In Kwara State

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Politics is often described as a game of numbers. Yet, from time to time, political parties become so consumed by symbolism that they overlook the arithmetic that ultimately determines victory or defeat. Such appears to be the situation unfolding in Kwara State ahead of the 2027 governorship election.

For decades, the people of Kwara North Senatorial District nursed a grievance. Since the return to democracy in 1999, political power has largely rotated between Kwara Central and Kwara South, leaving the northern axis feeling excluded from the state’s highest office. The agitation for equity, inclusion and power shift became a recurring theme in political discourse across Edu, Patigi, Moro, Kaiama and Baruten local governments.

When the major political parties eventually began looking northward for governorship candidates, many observers considered it a historic breakthrough. At long last, Kwara North appeared to be getting the recognition it had sought for generations.

Then came an unexpected twist.
Rather than merely zoning their tickets to Kwara North, two of the major contenders for power reportedly went a step further and picked candidates from the same local government area — Baruten.

The APC settled for Rt. Hon. Yakubu Danladi, Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, while the ADC chose Hon. Zakari Mohammed, a former Commissioner, former House of Representatives member and one of the most recognisable political figures from the district.

On the surface, this may appear inconsequential. After all, both candidates are qualified politicians with substantial political experience. But beneath the surface lies a strategic dilemma that may haunt both parties throughout the campaign season.

The first casualty of this arrangement is the much-celebrated Kwara North solidarity. Ordinarily, when a district that has long clamoured for power finally produces a viable governorship candidate, there is an expectation that regional sentiment will rally behind that aspiration. The district becomes a united political bloc capable of negotiating with other zones from a position of strength.

However, when two major parties field candidates from the same district—and indeed from the same local government—the expected unity quickly gives way to competition. Instead of presenting a united northern front, Kwara North now faces the prospect of internal fragmentation. The votes that might have consolidated around a single northern aspiration will now be divided between two prominent sons of the same soil.

The situation becomes even more complicated because the contest does not merely begin in Kwara North, it begins in Baruten itself!

Baruten is not just another local government. It is the largest local government area in Kwara State by landmass, stretching across nearly 10,000 square kilometres and sharing international borders with the Republic of Benin. It possesses significant electoral value and immense symbolic importance in the politics of Kwara North.

Yet, instead of Baruten serving as a unified launchpad for one candidate, it has become the first battlefield. Every political structure, traditional network, youth group, ward organisation and community influence centre in Baruten will be pulled in opposing directions. Rather than providing a solid voting base for one aspirant, the local government is likely to produce a split verdict.

Recently in an interview with news men in Ilorin, I captured the dilemma succinctly when I described the situation as an “own goal.” That argument is difficult to dismiss.

Both Yakubu Danladi and Zakari Mohammed are grassroots politicians with genuine support networks. Danladi enjoys the advantages of incumbency, institutional visibility and the backing of the ruling party machinery. Zakari Mohammed, on the other hand, brings extensive legislative experience, name recognition and deep-rooted political relationships built over decades. Neither man is politically insignificant. Consequently, neither can expect to sweep Baruten, albeit Kwara North uncontested.

The inevitable result is that each candidate weakens the other’s strongest potential base.
Political strategists often advise parties to maximise geographical spread. Elections are rarely won by concentrating strength in a single location. They are won by building complementary coalitions across multiple constituencies.

A more conventional political calculation might have seen one party selecting a candidate from Baruten while another searched for a strong contender from Moro, Edu, Patigi, Kaiama or even another senatorial district entirely. Such an arrangement would have expanded each party’s reach and reduced direct competition within the same electoral territory. Instead, APC and ADC have chosen to fight for the same political real estate.

The irony is striking. The very district whose quest for inclusion was meant to strengthen its bargaining power may now witness its influence diluted by internal rivalry. Of course, elections are not won solely on local government arithmetic. Candidates must still appeal to voters in Kwara Central and Kwara South. Party structures, campaign resources, incumbency advantages, public perception and national political currents will all shape the final outcome.

Yet political history repeatedly teaches that candidates derive their initial momentum from their home bases. A candidate unable to establish overwhelming dominance in his immediate constituency often enters the wider contest from a position of weakness. This is perhaps the most significant risk facing both APC and ADC.

Instead of entering the race with consolidated support from Baruten and substantial goodwill across Kwara North, both candidates may emerge from their home territory with divided mandates and diminished political capital.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the emerging political equation in Kwara is that neither APC nor ADC may be the principal beneficiary of the decision to field candidates from the same local government area. That distinction may well belong to the PDP.

While APC and ADC are preparing for what promises to be a fierce contest within Baruten and across Kwara North, the PDP is quietly watching two rivals expend energy and resources in the same political territory.

The logic is simple. Every vote won by Yakubu Danladi in Baruten is potentially a vote denied Zakari Mohammed. Likewise, every vote won by Zakari Mohammed is a vote denied Danladi. The two candidates are effectively drawing from the same political reservoir.

The PDP faces no such dilemma. Its candidate enters the race with the possibility of building a broader coalition across the state rather than engaging in a localized struggle for supremacy in a single local government. More importantly, the electoral centre of gravity in Kwara remains Kwara Central.

For decades, no serious governorship contender has ignored the district’s enormous voting strength. It remains the state’s largest concentration of voters and continues to exert disproportionate influence on electoral outcomes.

If, as many political observers argue, the PDP candidate enjoys considerable popularity across sections of Kwara Central, then APC and ADC may have inadvertently created a situation where their strongest energies are directed toward neutralising each other in the North while leaving the state’s most decisive voting bloc relatively open.

In such circumstances, the PDP would require neither a landslide in Kwara North nor total domination of Kwara South. A commanding performance in Kwara Central, combined with respectable returns from Kwara South and a meaningful share of votes from Kwara North, could place the party in an extremely advantageous position.

This is the danger of political overconcentration. When two parties focus excessively on the same constituency, they often neglect the wider battlefield where elections are actually won and lost.

Yet caution remains necessary. Politics is not mathematics alone. Elections are influenced by incumbency, campaign financing, party structures, elite endorsements, voter mobilisation, national political currents and unforeseen events. What appears today as a strategic advantage may look entirely different by 2027.

For now, however, one conclusion appears difficult to avoid. By choosing candidates from the same local government area, APC and ADC may have unintentionally made life easier for the PDP than for themselves.

That is why the decision by APC and ADC may eventually be remembered not as a triumph of zoning, but as a strategic miscalculation. Kwara North may finally have secured the governorship spotlight it sought for decades. Yet by concentrating two major candidacies in the same local government area, the leading parties may have inadvertently transformed a historic advantage into a political liability. And in politics, as in football, an own goal counts exactly the same as any other goal on the scoreboard.

Abubakar Lasiele (PhD), a political scientist writes from GRA, Ilorin.