Terror vs Trees: Africa’s Green Wall Stumbles Amid Chaos And Conflict

Across Nigeria, Niger, and Burkina Faso, conflict and insurgency continue to hinder or roll back progress on the Great Green Wall initiative.....KINDLY READ THE FULL STORY HERE▶

A Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis tracked changes in tree populations across an 18×18 km standardized grid along the Great Green Wall (GGW) corridor in selected areas of Nigeria, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The study compared data from the project’s launch in 2007 to recent updates through 2025. Findings reveal insurgent activity in 24 of 30 surveyed locations, with three others showing signs of potential insurgent presence.

This widespread insecurity has led to large-scale community displacement. Eighteen locations have been completely abandoned, while another eight show signs of partial or likely abandonment.

Niger is central to the GGW initiative due to its geographic location within the Sahel and its acute environmental challenges. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, 80% of Niger’s population depends on rain-fed agriculture, yet 75% of the land is desert, and the country loses approximately 100,000 hectares of arable land annually to desertification.

The World Bank estimates that the GGW could help restore 3.2 million hectares of degraded land in Niger and improve food security. However, environmental experts argue that these figures no longer tell the full story. Insecurity now presents a major obstacle to restoration.

In Banizoumbou village, near Mali’s border in Tillabéri, a 10-hectare volunteer tree-restoration project for women and youth was halted when armed groups arrived and residents fled. “Everything was ready,” recalled Mr. Moumouni of L’Initiative pour l’Arbre. “But by April, we couldn’t deploy a single team.”

The UN Refugee Agency reported that at least 240,000 people were displaced in Diffa by 2017—a figure that has continued to rise. Many were farmers and herders essential for sustaining reforested areas.

In Diffa’s Chetemari and N’Gagam towns, once-vibrant tree-planting efforts by the Youth Association for the Protection of the Environment (AJUPE) have ceased. “We can’t go back,” said AJUPE president Abdoul Aziz Mohamed. “Military escorts are more expensive than our seedling budget.”

Ideally, NGOs would revisit sites post-planting to monitor growth and engage communities. But insecurity has forced many efforts into abandonment. Mr. Mohamed expressed concern that promising reforestation and food garden initiatives are now forgotten, with saplings dying and sand reclaiming restored land.

A Reversal of Gains

Satellite analysis confirms a significant ecological decline in Niger’s agricultural zones—especially in Tahoua, central Tillabéri, and western Maradi—where over 2.5 million hectares of arable land have turned to sand due to climate change, overgrazing, and deforestation.

Despite setbacks, GIS data shows progress in areas like Dosso and Zinder, where Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR) has helped restore more than five million hectares, contributing to the growth of 15 million trees.

However, these successes are under threat. Armed conflict has undone years of restoration in northern Tahoua and western Tillabéri. By 2020, satellite imagery revealed that nearly 1.8 million hectares of once-rehabilitated land now exhibit little to no vegetation.

From 2010 to 2015, Niger made steady progress, restoring about 400,000 hectares annually. But as insurgencies intensified after 2016, reforestation efforts in Tillabéri stalled or reversed entirely. Satellite updates show diminished vegetative growth in once-thriving areas.

Beyond conflict, human activity further undermines forest recovery. In Filingué, once-rich in acacia and baobab trees, wood is illegally harvested, especially at night, as security forces avoid the area. Local officials estimate over 3,000 trees are felled each year, leaving stripped, barren land.

National figures mirror this trend. In 2020, Tillabéri had 12,600 hectares of natural forest (0.14% of land area). By 2024, it had lost four hectares, contributing to 797 tonnes of CO₂ emissions, according to Global Forest Watch.

In Diffa, displaced populations from Boko Haram violence rely on trees for fuel, shelter, and income. This has led to widespread deforestation. “We don’t even know how many have been cut,” said Moussa Bagana, a researcher at the University of Diffa, describing tree stumps and vanished woodlands.

Rare species like Balanites aegyptiaca (Aduwa) and Bauhinia tortuosa are vanishing, especially around refugee camps. Already weakened by overuse and slow regrowth, they’re now near extinction in some zones.

From 2000 to 2020, Diffa lost an estimated 578 hectares of tree cover—a 52% reduction. Satellite imagery from 2016–2020 shows severe vegetation decline: Filingué lost over 50,000 hectares of canopy; Diffa saw a 20% drop in tree cover. Green patches from a decade ago are now dry sands.

Nationally, Niger lost over half its tree cover (55%) between 2001 and 2024, emitting an estimated 1.04 tonnes of CO₂e—equal to burning 400 litres of gasoline. Tillabéri, Dosso, and Diffa alone account for nearly 60% of this loss.

Vision Undermined by Dysfunction

Despite the African Union’s commendable GGW vision, Niger’s environmentalists argue that internal dysfunction and insecurity are the greatest barriers to success.

Mismanagement and poor budgeting are compounding the problem. In Nigeria, for example, the National Agency for the Great Green Wall (NAGGW) received nearly ₦5 billion in 2023, but only ₦372 million—less than 10%—was spent on tree planting. The rest funded unrelated projects, such as roads, classrooms, and solar streetlights—many concentrated in Yobe State, home to current and former agency heads. One peculiar item allocated ₦25 million for streetlights in Kubwa, Abuja, far from GGW project zones.

In 2024, the agency’s budget jumped to ₦21.9 billion. Although tree planting funds increased slightly, large sums—over ₦4 billion—were still set aside for unrelated initiatives like youth sports and solar infrastructure. A Freedom of Information request sent on June 2 by PREMIUM TIMES remains unanswered.

Environmental activists are alarmed by the disconnect between the GGW’s mission and how funds are spent. In Kano’s Gidan Gabas, a woodlot project launched with fanfare quickly failed due to lack of water. In other states, such as Yobe and Adamawa, locals converted abandoned tree-planting sites into farmland.

Weak Institutional Capacity in Niger

Similar issues plague Niger’s GGW efforts. Since its creation in 2015, the national agency tasked with coordinating restoration lacks reach, resources, and capacity. With no presence in Niger’s eight regions, and minimal technical ability to oversee or verify projects, the agency relies heavily on NGOs and donor efforts.

The result is a patchwork response to desertification. Between 2015 and 2019, only 1,780 hectares were reforested using national funds—vastly overshadowed by externally funded interventions.

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